At the Break ...

The Twins are still in first place in the American League Central Division. 

With the exception of four consecutive days in June, they's been there since April 24th. 

 But does that mean they're a good team this year? Let's look. And I'm going to look at everyone who's put on a Twins uniform this season, not just the guys currently on the roster, OK? 

They have a winning record against every team in the AL Central, except for that team from Cleveland where they are 5-6, .455. In the East, they are 2-2 with the BoSox, and 1-2 with the Yankees, who also have the best record in the AL at 64-30, .681. The Western Division is still to be determined. They haven't played the Angels yet, they are 0-3 against the Astros, who have the second best record in the AL and lead the division, 1-2 with the Rangers, but have winning records against the A's at 5-1, and the Mariners, 4-3. 

They have scored 28 more runs than the opposition, and have lost only 6 games by one run. If they had won those six games they would be 56-38, .596, which would put them in third place in the league, overall. As it is, they are in sixth. Take heart, Cleveland is eighth.

Using Linear Weights (for more details on that see The history of “Total Baseball” and Pete Palmer’s baseball database), Luis Arraez is the most productive player on the team at 20.74. Jorge Polanco is second, 10.74, Correa is third, 9.3, and Byron Buxton is fourth, 7.65. Following him are Kepler, 5.85; Garlick, 4.60; Gio Urshela, 2.15; Royce Lewis, 2.09; with Larnach and Miranda under 1. 

Not great. 

Starting pitching isn't great, either. The starting rotation is 28-24 and over 40 no-decisions. But then, we are talking about the Twins, and it seems like pitching is always lacking in that department. Again, using Linear Weights--or Pitcher's Runs--here's how they rank to to bottom: Ryan, 8.6; Archer, 4.4; Winder, 4.0; Gray, 2.1; Smeltzer, 2.0, and Ober, 1.0. Everyone else is in negative numbers.

Relief is maybe marginally better, with the bullpen accounting for 23 wins, 17 losses, 20 saves, and 24 blown saves. Also using Linear Weights, here's their rank: Duran and Moran tied at 6.8; Megill, 6.5; Cotton and Jax both at 4.1; Coulombe, 3.1; Thornburg, 1.3; Romero, 1.2; and Alcala, 1.0. Two guys who have been getting lots of time on the mound in relief this season, Pagan and Thielbar are -4.4 and -4.0, respectively. Cano had the worst of it, his number is -6.8.

Over the season, the Twins have won 14 series, and lost or split 15 series. That is not how a League champion plays. They need to win these divisonal games if they want to stay in first (no duh), but that's not how it's been going lately. That last series with the ChiSox they went 1-3 and were outscored 32-10. 

That's not even close.

The team OBP is .742, which is third overall, and 421 runs, strikeouts are 768 which puts them in the bottom half of the league, just behind the Yankees who are at 789. Cleveland has the fewest, 630. The team ERA is 3.92 sixthe best in the league (what was I saying about pitching?--you can never have too good of a pitching staff). the bullpen has converted 20 of 37 save opprtunities (.541), Cleveland is doing better, 22 of 31, (.709).

So let's be honest here. The postseason doesn't look good for the Twins from where I sit. In fact, the AL Central is pretty much the American League's doormat--again. Three of the six teams in the bottom of the rankings are from the Central division. Oakland, who the Twins are 5-1 against is in the cellar at 33-62. That's nothing to take comfort in.

Play ball!

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